With Sydney property values now well below their February peak, and a number of forecasters expecting further weakness before the market begins to recover, it’s understandable that some homeowners considering a move may be wondering whether they should simply wait.
After all, if the market has softened, why sell now if prices might improve later?
But there is an important distinction between waiting for the market to stop falling, waiting for it to start recovering, and waiting for prices to return to their previous peak.
Those could be three very different timeframes.
Current forecasts vary, as they always do, but several major forecasters expect Sydney prices to remain under pressure into 2027. And even when a market reaches the bottom and starts to recover, it can take time for values to regain what was lost during the downturn.
So if the main reason for delaying a move is the expectation that your property will be worth considerably more in 12 months, I think it’s worth looking carefully at the evidence rather than assuming that will be the case.
Where is the Sydney market now?
Sydney dwelling values are currently around 8.6% below their February 2026 peak.
There are differing views on how much further prices may fall. Westpac is forecasting a peak-to-trough decline of around 10.4% for Sydney, while CommBank economists have forecast a decline of around 13%. Domain has forecast Sydney house prices could fall by up to 7% over the 2026–27 financial year.
These are forecasts, not guarantees, and property markets can change direction more quickly or slowly than expected.
But they do raise an important point for anyone thinking, “I’ll just wait until prices recover.”
If prices fall further before they stabilise, the market then has to recover those losses before values return to where they were earlier this year. So waiting for the market to improve, and waiting for your property to return to its previous peak value may take longer than you expect.
Are you selling and buying in the same market?
This is one of the first things I look at when discussing timing with a seller.
If you’re selling one property and buying another in the same market, focusing only on what your current home might have been worth six or twelve months ago can be misleading.
You may achieve less for your property in a softer market, but the property you buy next may also cost less — and you may face less competition from other buyers.
For a downsizer, the important figure can be the gap between the property being sold and the property being purchased, rather than simply whether the existing home has risen or fallen in value.
The same principle can apply to someone upsizing. A softer market may reduce the value of the home they’re selling, but if higher-value properties have also softened, the change in the price gap can sometimes work in their favour.
That’s why I prefer to look at the whole move rather than the sale in isolation.
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Not every property follows the Sydney market
Broad Sydney statistics are useful for understanding the direction of the market, but they don’t tell us exactly what will happen with an individual property.
Some homes remain highly sought after even when overall conditions are softer.
A well-presented home in a tightly held location, with limited competing stock and strong appeal to its likely buyer demographic, can still attract considerable interest.
Other properties may be more sensitive to changing market conditions.
The question isn’t simply, “Is the Sydney market up or down?”
It’s also, “What level of demand is there currently for a property like mine?”
Recent comparable sales, current competition, buyer demand and the amount of similar stock coming onto the market can tell us far more about that than a broad Sydney statistic alone.
What are you actually waiting for?
Sometimes waiting is absolutely the right choice.
If there is no urgency to move, the property isn’t ready, or current conditions are particularly unfavourable for that type of home, there may be good reason to hold off.
But waiting because you expect prices to return quickly to their previous peak is a different decision.
No one can predict with certainty when the market will bottom or how quickly it will recover. Current forecasts suggest Sydney may still have further to fall, and even once prices begin rising again, it could take some time to recover the ground already lost.
For someone who has a genuine reason to move, that raises another question:
Is waiting potentially a year or two — or possibly longer — to recover a previous value, worth putting those plans or my life on hold?
For many homeowners, particularly downsizers, the answer won’t be determined by the property market alone.
Lifestyle, family, the upkeep of the current home, where they want to live and what they want the next stage of life to look like can be just as important.
In a softer market, strategy becomes even more important
A softer market doesn’t mean properties won’t sell well.
It does mean sellers generally have less room for error.
Price positioning, presentation, agent selection and campaign strategy become particularly important when buyers have more choice.
This is also when I think it’s important to choose an agent based on evidence of what they are achieving now, rather than relying too heavily on results from a much stronger market.
How are their current campaigns performing? How are they following up buyers? How are they negotiating when there are fewer competing bidders? And how realistic is their advice about the likely selling range?
If a property is launched at the wrong price, poorly presented or represented by an agent who isn’t proactive with buyers, it can be much harder to recover momentum when conditions are already challenging.
So, should you sell now or wait?
There isn’t one answer that applies to every homeowner.
I would consider:
✅ what your property is realistically worth in the current market
✅ the level of buyer demand for your type of property
✅ how much competing stock is available
✅ what you intend to buy after you sell
✅ what is happening in the market you intend to buy into
✅ whether your property is genuinely ready for sale
✅ your personal timeframe and reasons for moving.
Sometimes that assessment will point towards waiting.
At other times, it may show that selling now still makes very good sense — particularly if the main reason for waiting is the assumption that prices will quickly return to where they were earlier this year.
The aim shouldn’t necessarily be to sell at the perfect moment in the property cycle. Very few people can do that consistently.
It should be to make the decision based on your property, your next move and the evidence available at the time.
Thinking about when to sell?
The market isn’t the only thing that determines your result
Market conditions matter, but the agent you choose and the strategy they use can have a significant impact on the outcome.
In my video, Why Your Real Estate Agent Matters More Than the Market, I explain why agent selection becomes particularly important when you’re preparing to sell.
Why Your Real Estate Agent Matters More Than the Market
If you’re considering selling and aren’t sure whether now is the right time, I’m happy to talk through your property, your plans and the current market before you make a decision.
Book a call with me or call 0411 522 233 for an initial conversation.
Market data and forecasts referenced in this article are current as at October 2026. Property market forecasts are estimates only and actual market movements may differ.
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